This presentation does not reflect the reviews of the Defense Intelligence Agency or the U.S. Department of Defense.
Consider for a second the words of William Shakespeare who characterised our fear of the future in Hamlet. Hamlet tells us that it’s miles better to go through the ills of the day than to tour to the Undiscovered Country Takeaway food delivery near me in London.
“The undiscovered united states, from whose borne no vacationer returns, puzzles the will, and makes us as an alternative endure the ones ills we’ve got than fly to others that we understand no longer of” Hamlet is not expressing a fear not of demise, but of no longer understanding what lay in advance. He turned into announcing it is the destiny we fear. And in a global so characterised by using turbulent alternate, it is comprehensible why so many are unsettled via the future. Historical money owed normally show the sensation amongst the population became the same inside the Renaissance and in the Age of Enlightenment.
Today I would really like to proportion with you another vision of the destiny. In this scene there are youngsters playing in the sand. They are arguing over how the sand castle should be built. In the historical past you could see a large tidal wave. It is 100 feet excessive and stretches as a ways as the attention can see. The roar is deafening, and yet the children keep arguing, oblivious to the coming destiny.
That is what the future seems like to me. We are inside the starting of a essential restructuring of civilization and most folks are asleep at the wheel or worse yet, so engaged in our regular activity that we can not see it coming.
I’d like to talk for a few minutes about the future and what it method for intelligence and countrywide safety. I suppose the nice manner to address this concern is in 4 components:
1. What is the contemporary environment of trade?
2. What does this Undiscovered Country seem like?
3. What is the destiny context of National Security?, and
4. What intelligence skills do we need for National Security?
Let’s talk approximately the cutting-edge weather of change first. A few years in the past I was leading a Space Architecture Study for the National Security Space Office. The paintings turned into alleged to take into account how space could perform 20-25 years into the destiny. Someone commented to me that nothing we do could trade; that we had space abilties that we had been working on that lengthy that still have now not been fielded.
I idea for a moment to keep in mind what honestly had modified in just that time period:
1. No Global Positioning System – a functionality that is not handiest a pillar of our army force projection; but an vital element of the global economic system.
2. No mobile telephones A generation which maximum can not do with out. (no textual content messaging)
3. No Internet or as a minimum no World Wide Web. I don’t have to tell you how lots international connectivity has changed the planet.
4. Twenty-five years in the past there were also no laptop computer systems, virtual cameras, cable TV, DVDs, hybrid automobiles, or MP3 players. The listing is nearly countless.
The importance of those changes is that now not is era just a option to a trouble; however it is genuinely changing the manner the population of this planet think and act. But exchange is in truth, even extra essential. Societies are simply restructuring because of the changes delivered about through technology. For the following few many years, countrywide security efforts will should perform in this context.
In the United States, as in lots of different places within the international, we have moved from agrarian primarily based societies to business ones to now statistics based society. Shrinking work units, decentralization, distributed media stores, rapid re-capitalization, customized products, brief product existence, and many others. All those adjustments are the hallmarks of a understanding-based society.
** We are getting a “Service Based” society. Is that a terrible factor? If it is you equate offerings to McDonalds. But bear in mind services also encompass medical doctors, scientists, engineers, writers, printers, software program developers, etc. Knowledge becomes the forex of the future.
We are dwelling in a time when we are witnessing a crash of the establishments and civilization we have known. We are also lucky to be witness to the civilization this is arising. This fundamental alternate is causing frictions on this country and even more frictions all through the arena. It is possibly to achieve this for many years yet to return.
THE UNDISCOVERED COUNTRY
Let’s now turn our attention from our present-day changing society to the destiny. If chaotic trade is the nature of present day day society than what are we able to say approximately the future? What are we able to say approximately trends for the destiny? Let’s observe just a few destiny developments.
1. Future Trend. Societies will continue to integrate globally. While most people of information-enabled societies will integrate nicely, there might be a conflict of cultures with extremist societies enabled through the global transportation and records float. This clash may be very likely going to be with us for decades. Also, many nations are going through periods of industrialization and in a lesser-developed state and therefore extra inclined toward nationalism. They are envious of outdoor influence. Economic engagement (frequently seen as intrusion) into those countries might be a source of friction.
2. Future Trend. Climate Change will strain global sources. Impoverished countries will experience the consequences of worldwide weather trade in crop disasters, hunger, infectious sicknesses, mass population movements, and water shortages. As governments are unable to deal with these conditions, they will be ripe for revolutions, societal upheavals, and terrorism. I need to position a caveat on the problem of world weather trade. While the affects of worldwide climate exchange are probably to be challenging; in particular for prone nation-states; they may be rather mitigated for the world as a whole by technology. It is for this reason that I would be hesitant to be too terrific a predictor of gloom regarding international weather alternate.
The essential hassle with most predictions is they make a essential and often fake assumption that things will preserve as they’re.
A conventional example of this problem came about approximately 110 years ago. It turned into the exceptional horse-manure crisis. *
In the yr 1900 London had eleven,000 horse drawn cabs and numerous thousand buses, each of which required 12 horses consistent with day, a complete of greater than 50,000 horses. In addition, there have been limitless carts and drays all turning in goods wished via the hastily growing populace of the sector’s largest town. Writing within the Times of London in 1894, one creator contemplated the consequences of a have a look at concluding that during 50 years each road in London might be buried beneath 9 ft of manure. There had been numerous cities with a similar problem and severa studies with comparable dire predictions.
The problem did indeed seem intractable. The large and richer that cities became, the greater horses they had to feature. The extra horses, the more manure. Moreover, a majority of these horses needed to be stabled, which used up ever-large areas of an increasing number of treasured land. And because the variety of horses grew, an increasing number of land had to be dedicated to producing hay to feed them and this had to be added into towns and allotted through horse-drawn motors. Urban civilization changed into doomed. Well I suppose all of us realize the tale from here. Henry Ford applied assembly line production strategies to the automobile. The disaster was averted. History has shown that necessity is still the mom of invention. And even now, we are seeing environmentally pleasant” products in widespread numbers and environmental troubles are rank “third” at the list of most essential problems in the approaching presidential election.
If I had been to expect anything about the destiny of worldwide weather trade; it’d be that the hazard of it’s going to pressure a new generation revolution that surpasses the latest revolution in telecommunications. That said, I assume we are able to nonetheless count on some stressing of global sources to help those international locations which might be specially vulnerable to weather exchange.
3. Future trend. We will revel in a revolution in new environmental and associated technologies added into society. These consist of opportunity technologies for production of strength, food, drinking water, construction, transportation and a host of other necessities. These technologies can be created based on the fear of global weather change, international telecommunications, economic pressures, ageing populations and the desire for better exceptional of existence.
Four. Future fashion. Population migration. There turned into a time when one changed into born, lived, and died inside a 50-mile radius. I suppose all and sundry who has lived within the US is aware of that that is no longer the case. We see global migration tendencies that the show motion of human beings from developing societies to developed societies looking for a better existence. Families of the destiny will be spread over continents impacting the concept of the own family and relationships between state states.
(The notable horse-manure crisis. Stephen Davies, senior lecturer in history at Manchester Metropolitan University in England.)
5. Future fashion. The population of the Earth – in particular industrialized countries has moved from large households to small ones. These international locations are developing older. For example, in Japan the median age might be 50 through the yr 2020. Many other superior industrialized nations display similar traits. Many European nations have negative boom rates. This worldwide fashion could have effect on labor pools, tax bases, health care, and the development of fitness associated technology. With an older global population we are probable to peer sizable social and economic stresses.
6. Future trend. Job movement. US Dept of Labor checks display that six of the pinnacle 10 jobs did no longer exist five years ago. Technical expertise is doubled every two years. So we’re schooling destiny people for jobs that do not yet exist on technology that has not yet been invented, to remedy troubles we do not even know are problems but.
The American employee of the destiny will work for at the least 10 corporations by means of the age of 38. That person could be a member of a expertise based totally paintings force. Most conventional manufacturing jobs will keep to move overseas; a byproduct of globalization. The improvements in technology which might be driving changes in production strategies are a specifically critical and underlying thing of this trend. For lots of years agriculture became the main fabricated from civilization. The Industrial Revolution shifted production and the work populace along side it as factories got here into being and cities grew. In its infancy, the USA had over 85% of its employees worried in agriculture. Today that determine is between 1% and a pair of%. In Europe that variety hovers at around 13%.
The equal fashion is taking place now as numbers of producing jobs shrink and the numbers of information based jobs boom. Advances in robotics generation, virtual imaging, and computing abilties are converting the producing base. Less and much less humans are working in manufacturing as robotic systems update human beings. In the equal manner the numbers of individuals worried in agriculture dwindled, so that you could will the numbers of persons working machines. Manufacturing methods called Additive Layer Manufacturing will allow small factories and even people to create unmarried products from a nice powder of steel, nylon or carbon-strengthened plastics. However, an increasing number of educated human beings with specialized technical competencies will be required to expand, install, and hold specialized system.
The evolution of the future “facts worker” may additionally, in reality, reason a new economic paradigm with a small range of statistics innovators, leaders, and workers producing most of the people of society’s wealth. What takes place to the rest people?
7. Future Trend Ubiquitous Sensors. Miniaturized sensors are becoming pervasive in society, in particular industrialized countries. Governments and groups alike use sensors to mange public transportation, track product shipping, manage warehouse and shop inventories, regulate public utilities, offer public health and safety, signify environmental conditions, and secure belongings.
8. Future Trend Loss of Nationalism. The US and different superior “statistics based totally” societies will suffer a degrading belief in nationalism. I was surprised to examine a current observe that surveyed individuals of “Gen Y” on friendships. The observe showed Gen Y made no distinction between on-line friends and ones they see on a ordinary basis. What a profound scenario: “Our children view their contacts all over the global the identical way they see friends every day.” This fashion along with global migration patterns one asks “what does this imply for the concept of a nation nation now, and two generations from now? For America, the concept of a kingdom country, as we recognise it is crumbling and we’re in for a few top notch modifications in a very short length.
Another factor using the lack of nationalism is the increase in Internet. The speed of Internet doubles about one year. There isn’t any theoretical restrict to this trend. The boom in pace is permitting an increasing number of data to be shared. This boom will permit people to hold a virtual international presence sharing 3D actual time video, large information, and globally related processing. In many years to come back we can attain a factor in which the human race will be absolutely incorporated. Societies can be come economically, legally, socially, and politically intertwined. Education and scientific expertise becomes globally available.
9. Future Trend “Loss of the Masses.” I’m now not pretty sure what to name this trend but it is perhaps the foundation of alternate this is going on globally. Our society was once one characterized by means of loads: mass media, mass manufacturing, mass industrialization, and mass actions.
Mass media is a time period used to denote the media designed to reach a very huge target audience which includes the population of a country kingdom. The time period changed into coined within the Twenties with the arrival of nationwide radio networks, mass-flow newspapers and magazines, even though mass media (like books and manuscripts) were present centuries before the term have become commonplace.
Gone is the concept of “Mass” as one point of the distribution of expertise. A extra accurate term is “public media” wherein Internet has unfolded communications to every person via electronic media and print media to include:
• Broadcasting, in the slim sense, for radio and tv.
• Various types of discs, tapes, digital storage gadgets.
• Blogs, internet casts, and podcasts, for information, track, speech, and video
• Mobile smart telephones
• Mobile computing, iPods, Galaxy Tab, etc.
• On call for publishing -books, magazines, and newspapers.
• Massive Multi Play on line video games PlayStation three, Xbox 360, and Wii.
Every person can put up substances to every this sort of communications media leveling the gambling discipline with corporate media giants. I suspect we are able to additionally see the same “de-massification” tendencies in unions, religions, schooling, politics, and so on. As the method for global communications and production will increase so too does the ability for self-expression and individualism. Therefore, the destiny will feature small companies bonding collectively for a particular purpose before going their very own manner again. Enhanced telecommunications and media manufacturing is the key for allowing this fashion.
The influences of Internet and increasing global telecommunications infrastructure and technology are tough to are expecting. Only now are we witnessing the consequences of instantaneous public communications on political institutions. Nations and non government agencies will grapple to control nearby and international communications to restrict, control, or direct the popular will of humans. Limiting Internet will prove distinctly difficult as international communications will become inextricably integrated to financial properly being.
Manufacturing too is becoming allotted or “de-massified”. Digital imaging, Computer Aided Design, and superior robotics allows for machines to convert to exceptional product strains taking into consideration brief production runs. This functionality lets in for a small manufacturing facility to make short run multiple product lines at minimal fee. The extreme of this process is 3-D printing allowing for individuals to make gadgets at home. In decades to come back clients will gain from low fee tailored product traces.
FUTURE CONTEXT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
Okay, those are just a few tendencies which might be at the horizon. Now permit’s recall for a minute the effect of those trends on countrywide security.
We are going to function in a dramatically one-of-a-kind environment then we do these days. The society we recognise might be exclusive; possibly with different views and probably exceptional (and a couple of) price structures as properly. The same could be authentic for many countries drawn into globalization.
Our idea of what it manner to “guard ourselves” a long time from now can be dramatically specific from what it is nowadays. With globalization accelerating, defending a kingdom kingdom may also emerge as an workout greater in cyber conflict, worldwide policing functions, nation constructing and guide, small unit fight operations, and exerting diplomatic, political, and financial have an impact on.
With this future in thoughts certain conditions will exist as critical elements of our National Security.
Cyber Security Cyber security will be required not only for navy or authorities operations however for the national economy as nicely. In decades to come, the general public of the U.S. Economy will rely on Internet. No single element of national infrastructure offers a more vulnerability. Cyber assaults blended with physical assaults towards pick out facilities should cripple the U.S. Economic system, possibly past healing.
Think about commercial enterprise, protection, neighborhood, kingdom, and national authorities functions, and many others. All taking place at literally the speed of concept. This is what the destiny holds and the World Wide Web is the key factor integrating purchaser and authorities services into our lives. These services retain to growth as more business migrate their presence directly to the World Wide Web. Less than 20 % of US agencies are at the internet now.
Some would say there may be already a cyber conflict on going between kingdom states, and among nation states and man or woman actors. The US Department of Defense alone is at the receiving give up of 1 billion cyber attacks every day. And yet with all this pastime worldwide doctrine for cyber struggle is as primitive as nuclear doctrine inside the late 1940s. How do you respond if your united states of america is attacked? What if the assault isn’t lethal? Targeted in opposition to enterprise or vital infrastructure? What level of attribution is suitable for what form of response? The destiny competently and well-being of cyberspace can’t be over emphasised for any current society.
Power of the People. Theorists in international family members try to become aware of what factors drive nations to conflict. They try to answer the essential question at what factor is a population willing to chance the lives of its little children in assist of its national pastimes? I recommend that the advances in era, globalization, and the resultant adjustments in lifestyle and societal structure are altering those paradigms to a substantial diploma. For example, democracy has misplaced its zeal, especially in long standing democratic societies. People who do not should combat for freedom and judicial equality select dwelling off the achievements of people who did. The contrary, but, can be said for the ones eager to flavor the end result of democratic life.
I know it appears tough to imagine now, but within the destiny, with less kids in line with family, an older populace, being absolutely “globalized”, and facing the stresses of fitness care and meals fees, we are able to find a citizenry a ways less supportive of armed warfare. The equal might be actual in advanced industrialized societies with low birth charges (i.E. Europe, Japan). Those states may be much more likely to visit conflict for economic motives than ideological ones. And whilst this is the case, the choice might be to execute struggle with little to no causalities. War might also in truth turn out to be a uniquely robot journey.
Destructive Power Going Up. For many years after WWII america and elements of Western Europe led the sector as the nexus of scientific expertise. That scenario has changed and will retain to achieve this.
Scientific and technological facilities of excellence are rising in Eastern Europe, China, Japan, India, Italy, and Russia. Global communications has fueled the spread of medical and engineering understanding. Along with the spread of clinical and engineering expertise come the ability to develop energetic explosives, chemical and biological weapons, and high-energy weapons. Individuals and small businesses can posses the equal damaging pressure of armies.
Cities vs. The Countryside. There is a controversy to be made that WMD development efforts, terrorists, and insurgents will retreat to the countryside as pervasive sensor networks of the future emerge in cities and at border crossings.
Decision Making. The decision to go to struggle will, an increasing number of, become a decentralized selection-making system. The Federal Government (President and Congress) will lose sizeable decision making power to people, overseas governments, and International bodies. Thus, choices emerge as micro and macro with a loss of power within the center.
The U.S. Is a representative form of democracy. At the micro stage, the dispersion (demassifying) of the media fueled by way of the Internet gives communication capabilities taking into account direct engagement among the government and the ruled. It allows for the common person to be heard by tens of millions and exert political pressure on the governing apparatus. Our present day machine of representative government isn’t mainly suited to this shape of direct democracy. In fact, with the aid of design the framers of the Constitution ensured selection-making tactics had been gradual to ensure emotions of the moment did now not pressure countrywide coverage. The pace of world communications will set in region a high degree of friction between politicians and constitutes as the former attempts to respond to the instantaneous demands of the latter.
At the macro stage, foreign governments and worldwide our bodies are taking a extra role in countrywide choice making. This situation is true not simplest for struggle, however for environmental problems, political issues, criminal selections, monetary and change issues, business and investment practices, data era requirements, etc. Even today, there is super global stress against the impartial movement of state states. And yet the tactics for transnational decision-making are, at nice, immature. The international maintains to depend upon diplomats, global, or quasi-international bodies based totally on “pre-virtual age” organizational structure and approaches. There is not any construct, process, model, or simulation that is aware and integrates country kingdom values and choice-making practices. The end result is that international treaties and agreements go through a time consuming and laborious procedure of negotiation, analysis, re-negotiation, evaluation, advice, and approval. This procedure frequently outlasts the assignments of these difficulty count number specialists assisting them. At this factor we’ve checked out the modern-day environment of change, some future traits, and the sort of environment in which country wide security will ought to be finished. Let us in the end flip our attention to future countrywide safety requirements.
SECRET INTELLIGENCE IN THE UNDISCOVERED COUNTRY
Intelligence at the Speed of Thought. For future national security desires, the most stressing intelligence necessities will be for faraway-sensing structures to locate, tune, move-que, and represent fleeting targets in real time. This potential will require a global network of sensors to stumble on and music individuals, motors, chemicals, substances, and emanations. Pervasive CCTV systems now present global in airports, border crossings, railroads, busses, and at the streets of many cities could be integrated and supported with the aid of effective computers, clever software program sellers, great facial sample and retina recognition databases, and communications infrastructure. These systems can be integrated with sensors and databases detecting, figuring out, and characterizing spectral signatures, chemical compositions, DNA, effluents, sounds, and lots greater.
Precision Targeting/Precision Strike. Exquisite characterization of intelligence goals will be required for future wars. We have visible the nature of conflict flow historically from the employment of mass armies, mass navies, and mass bombings to policing movements, unique operations, assassinations, and precision strike. Does this fashion mean massive regional or worldwide conflicts aren’t possible? Of course now not, but the ones conflicts have grow to be a long way much less probably over current a long time. A unmarried warfare along with Stalingrad wherein 1.5 million human beings were lost will now not be consultant of the considerable majority of future country wide protection moves.
Global Network of Sensors. The global network of sensors will provide the ability to intervene in near actual time kingdom and non nation actors. This functionality will permit instantaneous police or fight actions requiring a international presence (whether with the aid of single country or via allies). Immediate precision response is viable furnished the global agreements are in vicinity. In different words, it does not do any excellent so that you can discover weapon’s grade uranium or possibly a terrorist in u . S . A. If that authorities will no longer do something approximately it. Real Predictive Intelligence The future National Security surroundings will require splendid strides in predictive intelligence and related modeling abilities. Advanced modeling software program and analytical competencies pulling from worldwide information (multi media, multi lingual) resources will do the following:
• Provide situational awareness
• Understand human social interplay and media impact on activities
• Calculate political balance
• Assess technology traits
Robotics There is much less willingness to sacrifice sons and daughters as advanced societies grow wealthier and the own family unit grows smaller. This is in particular proper whilst the motives for navy action aren’t clean and survival of the nation country is not at stake. Many destiny combat moves will always be performed by using robots. In reality, this is already taking place. But the future will see robots hired in big numbers presenting discrete reconnaissance, unattended (and manned), pervasive surveillance, fight guide, and security capabilities. These intelligence missions will require multiplied communications, advanced processing skills for goal discrimination, and mems era for miniature structures, sensors, actuators, and microelectronics.
Scientific and Technical Intelligence Perhaps one of the finest challenges for Intelligence Services is the “demassification” of medical understanding. Of direction, the sector as an entire is probably better off having medical expertise pervasive in societies. However, the drawback to the demassification of the world’s medical information may be the near pervasive capability to create guns of mass destruction, related delivery systems, era superior reconnaissance structures and new generations of guns.
Demassification of Intelligence Like a whole lot of societal shape and services Intelligence Services will maintain to “demassify” of their collection capabilities. Collecting a country’s secrets will be critical. But more and more so too can be the capacity to gather lots of signs from open source documents, worldwide sensors, and physical phenomena to ascertain a country’s proper intentions. The finest challenges for the ones intelligence offerings could be in the integration, exploitation, and evaluation of large amounts of facts. “Smart software” will be the wave of the future.
Cyber Espionage I wrote in the mid 1990s that China’s intelligence services had invested heavily in cyber skills to acquire facts. In 2011, america National Counter-intelligence Executive affirmed this conclusion naming China and Russia as the arena’s most lively players in cyber espionage. I see this fashion simplest accelerating.